Macro Signal
Dashboard.

Equities rallied modestly in the US session while bonds sold off at the front end, steepening the 2s10s curve slightly from deeply inverted levels. The US 10-year yield held above 4.40%, with the UK gilt yield tracking 5bps lower on dovish BoE rhetoric.

Credit markets remained bifurcated: investment grade spreads tightened 2bps, but high yield widened sharply — the HY OAS jumped 8bps, driven by concerns around consumer credit and leverage. The VIX fell back below 19, signalling complacency in equity vol, but the MOVE index in rates vol edged higher to 112.

PMI data painted a mixed picture. US Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.2, entering contraction territory for the first time in four months, while UK Services PMI held above 53. Eurozone Composite PMI remained weak at 47.8. Commodities saw a risk-off bid, with gold pushing towards $2,340 and WTI crude stabilising at $82.40.

Overall, the macro regime remains LATE CYCLE. The yield curve is inverted, credit spreads are widening at the margin, and PMI data is deteriorating. The signal dashboard reflects a cautious posture: bearish on rates duration, neutral on credit, and bullish on safe-haven assets.