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Independent macro & market structure research

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with discipline.

Institutional-grade research on macro transmission, credit spreads, commodity supply, and microstructure — written daily for serious investors. Transparent model portfolios, AI tools, and an experimental day-trader, all from London.

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FTSE 1008,432.1+0.42% S&P 5005,287.6+0.28% UST 10Y4.24%−4.2 bp GILT 10Y4.13%−2.8 bp DXY104.86−0.18% GBP/USD1.2814+0.21% BRENT$83.42+1.18% GOLD$2,378.10+0.62% SILVER$30.84+1.92% VIX13.42−2.1% IG SPREAD92 bpflat HY SPREAD318 bp+4 bp FTSE 1008,432.1+0.42% S&P 5005,287.6+0.28% UST 10Y4.24%−4.2 bp GILT 10Y4.13%−2.8 bp DXY104.86−0.18% GBP/USD1.2814+0.21% BRENT$83.42+1.18% GOLD$2,378.10+0.62%
Coverage drawn from
BloombergTerminal RefinitivEikon FREDSt. Louis Fed BoEStatistical Database LSEGWorkspace FTEditorial Archive
01 / Research

This week's
analysis.

Three frames, one publication: macro transmission, market microstructure, and physical supply tightness. Read the latest long-form briefs and the live commentary that sits behind every model portfolio decision.

Japan macro Macro · Rates
11 Feb 2026 · 9-min read

Japan's PM Moment and Its Shadow Over US Stocks

JGB yield creep, BOJ normalisation and the overlooked transmission channel into US equity discount rates — a structural headwind most are ignoring.

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Macro positioning Risk · Sizing
09 Feb 2026 · 12-min read

Druckenmiller's Shadow: Sizing Macro Bets Under Uncertainty

How Druckenmiller sizes conviction positions — and why most macro tourists get the Kelly fraction catastrophically wrong.

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Silver market Commodities
07 Feb 2026 · 14-min read

Silver Market Outlook: COMEX Inventory Squeeze

Physical delivery pressure building on COMEX as registered inventory falls to multi-year lows — what it means for the basis and lease rates.

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Editor's note
We don't publish narratives. We publish frameworks — the kind a portfolio manager would test before sizing a position, and the kind a student should be able to defend in an interview.
— The Market Brief Daily
02 / Portfolios

Four model
portfolios.

Macro regime, market microstructure, physical supply tightness, and a regime-aware factor sleeve. Tracked publicly with benchmark comparisons, monthly attribution, and full methodology — not marketing.

MBD-MACRO
+8.4%
YTD · vs 60/40 +3.3pp
Macro Transmission Sleeve
MBD-STRUCT
+6.2%
YTD · vs S&P +1.8pp
Market Structure Alpha
MBD-SUPPLY
+11.7%
YTD · vs BCOM +4.9pp
Physical Supply Premia
MBD-FACT
+7.1%
YTD · vs MSCI W +1.7pp
Regime-Aware Factor
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AI day-trading dashboard
Live experiment
AI
Day-trader · paper account
Experimental · Open-book

An AI agent running an
intraday macro strategy.

Every trade logged in public with full reasoning — entry, exit, position size, and the macro signal that triggered it. Backtested on 18 months of historical data; running live since Jan 2026 in a paper account.

Sharpe
1.42
YTD
+9.4%
Win rate
58%
View the live trade log →
By the numbers
Coverage
04
Model portfolios across macro, structure, supply, and factor
Education
07
Chapters covering markets, instruments, UK tax, and CFA syllabus
Archive
80+
Research briefs in the public archive — read free
Sharpe
1.42
AI day-trader since launch — gross of fees, paper account
03 / Learn & Build

Education
and tools.

A free finance education library covering UK investing, tax wrappers, pensions, and CFA / IMC material. Plus four institutional-grade calculators — DCF, macro dashboard, CFA prep, and bond yield analytics.

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Education

Finance Education Library

Seven chapters covering financial markets, asset classes, investing principles, UK tax wrappers (ISA, SIPP, LISA), pensions, and CFA / IMC syllabus material — written in plain English.

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Free financial tools Four tools
Tools

DCF, Macro Dashboard, CFA Prep, Bond Yield

Four free institutional-grade calculators. Build a discounted cash-flow model in one screen. Track yield curves and credit spreads. Run CFA Level 1 practice questions across all 10 topic areas.

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